Carlos. Signs.

Carlos Sainz’s decision to sign for Williams is one of the final pieces of the silly season puzzle that will likely lead to confirmation of the promotion of Mercedes AMG Petronas F1’s developmental protégé, Kimi Antonelli, to Formula 1 into the open Mercedes seat, formerly held by Lewis Hamilton. A seat that Carlos had reportedly been vying for. However, his decision to sign for Williams, a midfield Mercedes customer team, has shocked many.

So this raises the question: Why Williams? What does this move signal about Mercedes' intentions to promote Antonelli, and what led Carlos to shift from a top factory operation to a struggling Mercedes customer team that struggles to maintain its midfield position?

Outgoing 7-time World Champion (rightfully 8-time champion) Lewis Hamilton said it best “Cash is king”. The same is true when it comes to developing and finding that next F1 generational talent.

And that's exactly it.

Financing a driver’s development career and finding that return on investment made in Antonelli is a likely reason why Mercedes and (other Formula 1 teams for that matter) may choose to promote from within vs a known entity and talent on the free agent market. Promoting from within a team's development ranks also means that current sponsors know the driver and are already funding their campaign season to season as they aim to reach Formula 1. When an external driver is selected or even discussed teams must “sell” the driver to the sponsor. However, when ‘cash is king’, if a sponsor is not a fan of that driver a deal may fizzle out.

There is another side not often considered: If a driver from within the team’s program does not secure sponsorship or funding that meets or exceeds the costs associated with their promotion, it may be sensible to consider an external search for a new driver. Given the challenges of making it to F1, we’ve seen many drivers brought through team development academies, and development ladders only to not find a seat for themselves in F1. This is not for lack of merit or performance, but cost alone. Most notably, Indycar driver Calum Ilott, a Ferrari Driver Academy Alumni, was bested by the large external sum of sponsorship money Alpine Academy alumni Zhou Guanyu brought to the table for a seat at Alfa Romeo (now Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber)—  a Ferrari customer team where many Ferrari Driver Academy Alumni start in F1.  Scuderia Ferrari ace and Ferrari Driver Academy Alumni Charles Leclerc first debuted here, he is another driver who is not shy about his struggles to finance his career early on. Had his father not met the Bianchi family (that of late Jules Bianchi) he would not have been introduced to manager John Todt, who assisted Charles in securing funding, Charles would not be on the grid today, sitting in his coveted seat at the iconic Scuderia Ferrari, were it not for this help. Take even Jack Aitken, a member of Williams Driver Development Academy, who has now split off after his notable race start in place of Lewis Hamilton in 2020 to focus on his factory-tied seat in IMSA with Cadillac in its LMDh, with others in the wings at Williams. Most notably Logan Sargeant taking his place. Numerous former Red Bull Juniors have seen a similar fate (Carlos Sainz included) either being released from the program when no seats are available, a seat is filled by someone with more funding, or being released in favor of new talent who check the financial boxes above.

This is why the promotion of Logan Sargeant in 2021 from Williams Driver Academy was so exciting, and why he has been given a chance across two seasons to prove himself. The hope was that the time and money Williams invested into the American driver would pay off, and give something for the American market to rally behind. Getting to and staying in F1 is not cheap, once you’re in, it's not cheap to finance a career in. Even drivers that come from well-off roots and generational wealth have turned to finance their careers through external sponsorship or junior development programs that offset and finance those costs for them at the cost of securing their driving rights – much like being signed to an NHL contract before you’re of legal playing age (18). Former F1 driver Nyck deVries is a prime example of someone who befell legal trouble stemming from the financing of his career through real estate mogul Jeroen Schothorst to assist in funding his F2 drive with powerhouse Prema on his way to F1. This led to the securing of a converted reserve role at Mercedes F1 team. In contrast to Nyck's situation, you can study current driver Pierre Gasly and soon-to-be former teammate Esteban Ocon as examples. Both received funding for their careers from the French government through their FFSA program. Gasly reached a crossroads early on in his junior open-wheel career. In 2014, had he not been signed to a Red Bull junior contract,(after being dropped as a junior previously by them) he would have likely not found a path to F1 due to funding issues. However, he soared through the junior ladders with their sponsorship, resources, development, and funding- all of which aided in his climb to and debut in Formula 1 for Torro Rosso. It was not until 2021 that we learned of the cost associated with one of these lucrative junior “development” contracts.

As Alpine scrambled to search for Fernando Alonso’s replacement following his shock departure, along with the infamous fiasco with Oscar Piastri (who had already signed with Mclaren) left them without a driver for 2022, their attention turned to the Frenchman. Gasly had already confirmed to have had his option picked up for 2023 by Alpha Tauri (now VCARB) for next season under his existing contract which was held by Red Bull. Red Bull - who hold ALL of their driver contracts whether they drive in the top team or not, had clear terms in what they wanted from Alpine for Gasly. It did not come cheap for Alpine: a buy-out clause, valued at a rumored 10 million euros, a return on their investment in him and his career they’d financed for nearly a decade from juniors all the way into 7 seasons in F1.

There has always been an argument of risk vs reward on the track in Formula 1, be it on track, off track, the decisions made financially or with personnel. This is front and center with the Antonelli vs Sainz signing. Do you take the risk of a young, new, fresh talent and bringing that into your team, or, do you choose a seasoned driver with multiple wins under their belt and feedback from multiple teams in the paddock? This is in part why Charles Leclerc's promotion to Ferrari from Alfa Romeo was so significant. It was the signing of young talent out of the development pool to a significant contract in a top team. To put that into perspective, in Formula 1’s cost cap era, a 10 million dollar price tag is almost 10% of a team's permitted spending.  While driver salaries and fees aren’t associated with the spending regulations in an era of fixed spending, it surely adds up. But with the right sponsors and investments onboard, that's nothing - especially when teams are generating revenue in the hundreds of millions.

But why not put Carlos in the factory team with a top-of-the-charts performance and let Kimi prove himself a year or two in Williams before claiming a top seat? Isn't Williams the Mercedes development team? It's where current driver George Russell spent two years before moving up to replace fan favorite Valtteri Bottas.

This feels like a turning point, where Williams has potentially said enough. Williams is often seen as the ‘Mercedes B team’ or Junior team due to a strong technical alliance and the appointment of long-time Mercedes F1 fixture James Vowles to team principal last year. They’re rebuilding their historic and triumphant roots again in Formula 1 along with their talent pipeline, and attracting top personnel onto their project; through heavy investment from Private Equity Fund Dorliton Capital, and a slew of team sponsors. They do not want to be seen as Mercedes’ B  – as they never really were. Due to their strong partnership as a Mercedes customer team, they have long had access to the Mercedes talent pool and were leveraging that to their advantage.

There is a certain level of politics that can occur with factory teams as a customer. i.e the factory team wants you to run their driver. Essentially, what’s then in it for you? Teams like Williams will have long leveraged these negotiations. 

However, with all of this significant investment and a struggling car, they need a driver who can help them on an upward trajectory. Not an unproven talent who is mid-pack in F2. This is also why the Sainz signing makes more sense strategically. Sainz, one of the most popular drivers in the field, brings a slew of external funding through personal sponsors that will be a wonderful cash infusion for Williams. It also fills the need for the “A Leader” as said by Team Principal Vowles who said, “If you look at every team he's gone to he has a history of ending with a team in a much better place than when he started”. That does not only reflect poorly on current driver Alex Albon, it shines a light on Sainz’s interpersonal skills within teams, his ability with F1 cars, and a reflection of his on-track performance. It's a no-brainer why a rebuilding team would pursue him, and why a signing like this makes so much sense. As hard as it is to see, Sainz would likely have never had an opportunity to lead and function as he will at Williams. That role is already filled in other teams, Ferrari with Charles Leclerc, and Mercedes in George Russell.This points to, that as puzzling of a signing as this is, there is a lot of potential to be unlocked as well as how much of a great fit for Sainz this really could be.

But then that still leaves the promotion of Antonelli.  We’ve long seen promotions of drivers to F1 too early hamper and destroy the spirit [and careers] of many. It will be interesting to see how Mercedes chooses to market and gets behind promoting a junior of their own making who has been highly regarded. There was not a fanfare as we see around Antonelli around esteemed and adored Mercedes junior Frederik Vesti, who is now sharing reserve driver responsibilities with Mick Schumacher. Kimi is following in the footsteps of sport transcending GOAT, Lewis Hamilton, a name recognized globally by not just motorsports fans. Quite honestly, there has not been much coverage or media surrounding the prodigy aside from his stunning (albeit absolutely insane) overtake in Eau Rouge from the past weekend at the Belgian Grand Prix. Antonelli is currently 7th in the Formula 2 standings, a record that no one really promotes out of, and at face value seems like a decision entrenched in risk for Mercedes. Historically, most promotions from F2 have come out of the top three championship finishers, barring any significant funding or factory support. From the outside looking in the decision is one fans are right to question.

Is this too much assumed risk for a rookie? Or, will Mercedes reap the rewards of their drivers’ talent? Without crucial data points such as simulator sessions or track days with the previous generation car, it's challenging to understand just what factors go into deciding between a rookie or experience.If only we could be a fly on the wall at the Mercedes board meeting to determine if there's any funding Antonelli contributes that makes this remarkable and expected promotion financially appealing for Mercedes.

Needless to say Sainz’ multi-year commitment to Williams says much about the financial and strategic factors that play into a team’s decision to sign a driver. While it’s a decision with great potential, it is one that fans will question for seasons to come.